,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,pFD1lbg7mIM,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_pFD1lbg7mIM,The 538 crew discusses the global anti-incumbent wave and examines whether Democrats in the U.S. had it the worst.
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,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,Z9TIrYVGVlc,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_Z9TIrYVGVlc,538’s Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich share their thoughts on Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for director of national intelligence.
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,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,Hv8Oo2dUWug,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_Hv8Oo2dUWug,In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage.
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,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,aTovXTK7QBE,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_aTovXTK7QBE,Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
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,1,Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate.
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,1,Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
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,1,538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
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,1,The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.
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,1,President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever on Thursday. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.
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,1,Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
Plus, this Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.
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,1,This Thursday, President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head in the earliest presidential debate ever. It is also the first contest between a president and former president in over a century and the first debate not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether historical expectations for presidential debates will apply in this unique situation. They also dissect some questionable uses of polling and preview a couple of high-profile primary races in New York and Colorado.
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,1,There are more people voting in 2024 than ever before. This year, elections are taking place in at least 64 countries, as well as the European Union, totalling almost half of the world’s population.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with Richard Wike, managing director of Pew’s Global Attitudes Research, and Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations, to talk about whether voters are behaving similarly across the globe. One of the biggest trends they discuss: a deep sense of discontent with the people in power. Why are voters so mad?
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,1,Last week we got significant news in two key issue areas that might shape how voters are thinking this fall: the economy and abortion legality. First, on Wednesday, the latest consumer price index data showed inflation cooling more than expected. Then, on Thursday, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously to uphold access to the abortion medication mifepristone by mail.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Senior Researcher Mary Radcliffe and Senior Elections Analyst Nathaniel Rakich about how voters are are thinking about the issues of the economy and abortion access in 2024 and how that will, in turn, affect their votes.
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,1,In this late night installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down the results of the special election in New York's 3rd congressional district. Democrat Tom Suozzi beat Republican Mazi Pilip in a race to replace former Rep. George Santos.
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,1,The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and President Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal.
A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we headed? And what does all of that mean for November 2024?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Neale Mahoney, economics professor at Stanford University.
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,1,In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen is joined by G. Elliott Morris, 538’s director of data analytics, to uncover more about how 538's pollster ratings are determined and reveal what are the best pollsters in America.
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,1,In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win.
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,1,Galen Druke sat down with three supporters of former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Manchester, New Hampshire, to talk about why they’re voting for their chosen candidates. The Haley supporter, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, said that if Haley does not win the primary, she will vote for Biden or independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the fall. The DeSantis supporter said he was committed to voting for Trump if he wins the primary, even if the former president is convicted of a felony before Election Day. (This was filmed before DeSantis dropped out of the race.)
Immigration was the number one issue for the Trump and DeSantis supporters, while leadership qualities were most important to the Haley supporter. Although these are just three people and not a representative sample, the themes we heard mentioned were reflective of the kinds of trends we’ve seen in recent issue polling in New Hampshire.
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,1,The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling.
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,1,With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the 538 Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, about the potentially competitive contest between frontrunner former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as the nuances of New Hampshire’s electorate.
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,1,The crew reacts to former President Donald Trump’s decisive victory in Iowa, as well as the race for second place, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis narrowly edged out former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
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,1,With just days until the Iowa caucuses, the crew reacts to a head-to-head debate between former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as a town hall featuring former President Donald Trump.
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,1,The Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with celebrated Iowa pollster Ann Selzer about likely caucusgoers' views of the candidates and how things could change in the final week of the campaign. Later in the show, Galen is joined by ABC News reporters Kendall Ross in Iowa, Kelsey Walsh in New Hampshire and Gabriella Abdul-Hakim in South Carolina. They share their insights from months of talking to voters and listening to candidates as they crisscrossed their states.
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,1,The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of the going odds.
They also discuss potential wildcards heading into the new year: What issues might motivate voters? How will congressional dysfunction play out? How about October surprises?
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,1,A quick roundup of the most important political stories this past year.
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,1,In this holiday installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks back at some of the most important political events of 2023 as well as some of the weirder political stories of the year. They also debate the thorny question of which types of cookies can be considered "Christmas cookies" in a festive edition of "Good or Bad Use of Polling." To wrap it all up, they play "Guess What Americans Think" and guess the answers to polling questions like, "If Santa were a registered voter, which party would he belong to?"
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,1,Former President Donald Trump attracted attention for his answer in a town hall with Sean Hannity last week suggesting he would not abuse his power as president in a second term, “except for Day One.” His answer came after extensive reporting on how his second-term plans would challenge democratic norms and accepted limits on presidential power on issues ranging from Department of Justice investigations to domestic use of the military.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Kate Shaw and professor of government Brendan Nyhan about Trump's second-term agenda. They discuss which aspects of it butt up against norms and the Constitution and which parts might simply be objectionable to partisans.
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,1,Galen unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley and White House correspondent MaryAlice Parks.
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,1,In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.
There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.
They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us?
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,1,OpenAI launched ChatGPT launched on Nov. 30, 2022. And quickly, the program changed the conversation around what is possible for artificial intelligence. In the past 12 months, we've seen campaign videos featuring AI-generated images, legislative proposals and a congressional hearing on AI regulation. By all accounts, the 2024 presidential election is going to be our first "AI election." However, often the specifics around AI’s impact remain vague. How exactly could it impact our electoral politics?
In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, the interim dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago. Bueno de Mesquita’s research focuses on game theory, political conflict and electoral accountability, and he recently co-authored the white paper "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research."
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,1,The U.S. House gets back to work on Tuesday and one of its first orders of business is expected to be a vote on whether to expel Rep. George Santos of New York. A House ethics report concluded earlier this month that he “sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit.”
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how likely Santos is to be added to the only five House expulsions in U.S. history. They also look at changing public opinion surrounding the Israel-Hamas war, after more than a month and a half of fighting. Plus, with new economic data in hand, they once again try to tackle the gap between positive developments and Americans' dismal perception of the economy.
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,1,What makes swing voters swing? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen heads to Simi Valley, California and speaks with voters whose preferences have crisscrossed parties in recent years. They explain how they’re thinking about politics today and why their views and identities may not fit neatly into one partisan bucket.
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,1,A lot has been made of the diploma divide in American politics over the past decade. Voters with a college degree and those without, moving in opposite political directions. What’s perhaps less commonly noted is which side of that divide has the strength in numbers.
Only 38 percent of adult Americans have a college degree, according to the U.S. Census. The composition of the electorate can change from year to year and place to place, but nationally it is never the case that college-educated voters make up the majority. So-called “working-class” voters take that distinction.
In 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed suit to varying degrees, though still giving President Joe Biden a clear majority of their support. This has left both parties with the understanding that going forward a multiracial, working-class majority will play a pivotal role in their electoral fortunes. So why have we seen these recent shifts to the right and what will both parties do to either capitalize on or reverse these trends?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with two authors who have recently published books about precisely those questions, but from opposite sides of the political aisle. Democratic political scientist Ruy Teixeira recently co-wrote the book “Where Have All The Democrats Gone? The Soul Of The Party In The Age Of Extremes” along with John Judis. Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote the book, “Party Of The People: Inside The Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”
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,1,To mark one year out from the 2024 election, Galen tries to make sense of the political environment based on all the data we have with a crew of election data nerds: G. Elliott Morris, ABC News editorial director of data analytics; Ruth Igielnik, editor for news surveys at The New York Times; and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.
In recent days, a spate of polls have come out, mostly showing a similar picture: Not only does former President Donald Trump outperform President Joe Biden in the swing states, he leads, on average, in national polls as well. The suggestion being that if the election were today — and Trump and Biden were the nominees — Trump might be favored to not just win the Electoral College, but the national popular vote too.
But there’s a catch, or two. Perhaps most importantly, the election is not today. Also, we got other data last week, from actual elections, showing Democrats performing relatively well. So, one year out, where does that leave us? The crew tries to answer that and later on in the show they also play a game.
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,1,The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.
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,1,In this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew unpacks the results from election night 2023. Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky and Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. The night was a decent performance for Democrats, despite a spate of recent polling suggesting Americans are pessimistic about Joe Biden's presidency.
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,1,In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew previews Election Day 2023, focusing on competitive statewide elections in two very Republican-leaning states — Kentucky and Mississippi. They also consider the value of a recent poll that asked whether we live in a "big, beautiful world, mostly full of good people" or if "our lives are threatened by terrorists, criminals, and illegal immigrants.”
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,1,Mississippi currently has one of the most unpopular governors in the country in Republican Tate Reeves. Nathaniel Rakich wonders if a Democrat could win in this year's election in this deep red state.
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,1,The former congressman and recent Texas transplant joins the podcast and talks about former President Donald Trump, the current state of the Republican party and why he's not done with politics just yet.
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,1,Nathaniel Rakich breaks down Ohio's Issue 1 ballot measure, one of the key races in the 2023 elections.
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,1,The pool of candidates running for president grew by one and shrank by one in the past week. President Biden got a little-known Democratic challenger in Dean Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota. And former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign for president after struggling to get above the mid-single digits during his 5-month-long bid.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses those latest developments in the presidential race. They also look at what we know about new House Speaker Mike Johnson and what challenges lie ahead for him. And they preview Election Day 2023.
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,1,Republicans are hoping to win a "trifecta" this November in Virginia’s 2023 legislative midterm elections. Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at what issues are at stake for both parties in this pivotal contest.
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,1,The House of Representatives has officially been without a permanent speaker for 20 days. After Rep. Steve Scalise and Rep. Jim Jordan failed to get enough support, nine new Republican candidates have stepped forward to run for the speakership. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew drafts teams of who they think is most likely to fill the position.
Then, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer joins Galen Druke to talk about why it has been so hard to get good, clear information about the war between Israel and Hamas. Last week, false reports that Israel had struck a hospital in Gaza City and killed hundreds spread online and across the mainstream media, leading to a breakdown in negotiations between President Biden and Arab leaders.
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,1,In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the latest polling on how Americans are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel and ongoing war in Gaza. They also check in on the speaker’s race in Washington and look at a polling experiment conducted by a conservative PAC hoping to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
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,1,The Hamas attacks on Israel dominated American politics over the weekend, with candidates and politicians sharing their reactions to the violence and now ongoing war. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about how the conflict is shaping politics in Washington and on the campaign trail.
They also discuss some recent notable developments in domestic politics: Last week, President Biden appeared to reluctantly pivot on his administration's approach to border security in south Texas, by clearing the way to build 20 miles of wall. On Monday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that he is launching an independent bid for the presidency in 2024. And lastly, the crew takes a look at 538's newly published Republican primary polling averages in the early states.
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,1,The government did not shut down over the weekend, contrary to the expectations of many. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses the congressional machinations that led to a 45-day extension of current funding and why it could create problems for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
They also consider whether California's senator-designate, Laphonza Butler, will run for election in 2024. Then they look at the data behind a viral TikTok trend suggesting that men think about the Roman Empire significantly more than women and give tips for thinking about outlier polls.
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,1,Galen Druke explored what voters think about Republican presidential candidates after the second GOP debate in Simi Valley, California.
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,1,The crew reacts to the second Republican presidential primary debate in this late night podcast.
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,1,Galen Druke spoke with voters in Simi Valley, California, ahead of the second Republican debate there.
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,1,We are at an awkward moment in electoral politics. When it comes to the Republican primary, while there are plenty of alternatives to former President Donald Trump, none of them have gained serious traction. When it comes to Democrats, despite consternation about President Biden’s age and electability, he has no serious primary challengers.
More than a year out from the presidential election, it seems like the writing is on the wall, that electoral politics are frozen in place, and few people are happy about it. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with American politics professor Lynn Vavreck to help make sense of how we got here.
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