In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.
There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.
They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us?
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,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,pFD1lbg7mIM,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_pFD1lbg7mIM,The 538 crew discusses the global anti-incumbent wave and examines whether Democrats in the U.S. had it the worst.
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Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2
,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,Z9TIrYVGVlc,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_Z9TIrYVGVlc,538’s Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich share their thoughts on Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for director of national intelligence.
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Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2
,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,Hv8Oo2dUWug,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_Hv8Oo2dUWug,In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent advantage.
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Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2
,FiveThirtyEight,538,podcast,p_cmsid=2494279,p_vid=news-,aTovXTK7QBE,UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, Politics,Society, channel_UCXKjhxsfFQUqlNVQzLVnpEA, video_aTovXTK7QBE,Polls of Latino voters during the 2024 election were a mixed bag of accuracy. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
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,1,Since Thursday, the only story in American politics has been President Joe Biden's poor debate performance and what on earth Democrats are going to do about it. That was until today, when the Supreme Court ruled that American presidents have legal immunity for official acts.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, about the details of the Supreme Court's ruling. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich and Tia Yang discuss the continued fallout from the presidential debate.
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Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2
,1,In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.
There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.
They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us?
Website: http://fivethirtyeight.com/
Merch: http://fivethirtyeight.com/store
Twitter: http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/fivethirtyeight/
Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?mt=2